When a new variant of COVID-19 recently appeared, with the ability to spread much faster than the original virus, many people were taken by surprise.
But not Troy Day.
Dr. Day is an applied mathematician at Queen카지노 게임 컬렉션s 카지노게임사이트 who for years has been studying the evolution of microbes that cause infectious diseases, and he knows how quickly these can mutate into new versions. His expertise has now made him a key member of the Ontario COVID-19 Modelling Consensus Table, a group of experts trying to forecast where the virus is headed next.
Very little about this virus카지노 게임 컬렉션s sudden change is surprising, Dr. Day says. 카지노 게임 컬렉션Given what we know about evolution and about infectious diseases, it카지노 게임 컬렉션s a pretty standard sort of thing to have happen. We actually published a paper last April that was exploring what sorts of things might be expected to happen evolutionarily,카지노 게임 컬렉션 he says.
This virus has taken a major leap in its ability to replicate and spread.
Dr. Day developed a model this winter that showed for the first time that the new variant can cause case numbers to double every 10 to 15 days, as opposed to 40 days for the original virus. When he got this result, he was so surprised that he asked colleagues to check whether he had made a mistake.
He hadn카지노 게임 컬렉션t. And his finding showed that the new variant has a greater potential to overwhelm hospitals than the original virus.
Ontario has brought together people 카지노 게임 컬렉션from all over the place카지노 게임 컬렉션 카지노 게임 컬렉션 virus experts, epidemiologists (who study patterns of disease), geneticists, mathematicians, and more.
Their role is similar to hurricane modellers, who forecast which route a major storm is likely to take and when it will hit land.
카지노 게임 컬렉션We카지노 게임 컬렉션re all volunteers. We got into it because we카지노 게임 컬렉션re interested and want to help.카지노 게임 컬렉션
They are somewhat self-directed, he says, since they all have their own ideas and approaches, but there are also questions from Ontario카지노 게임 컬렉션s policy-makers and public health officials 카지노 게임 컬렉션 the people who have to make decisions for the province.
카지노 게임 컬렉션So, should we be testing in schools? If we test in schools, how should we be testing? What would be the consequence of that?카지노 게임 컬렉션
Other questions could include 카지노 게임 컬렉션anything that is quantitative,카지노 게임 컬렉션 and this is where his combined specialty in mathematics and biology works.
카지노 게임 컬렉션It could be projections of numbers of cases. It could be projections of how or when the hospitals could be overwhelmed. It could be projections of how much sequencing do we need to do on viruses in order to monitor the spread of this variant through the population.카지노 게임 컬렉션 (Sequencing is identifying the virus카지노 게임 컬렉션s genetic code.)
The pace is relentless.
카지노 게임 컬렉션Really, since it started it has been crazy, and super-crazy again since late fall,카지노 게임 컬렉션 he says.
A Kelowna, B.C., native, Dr. Day did one degree in biology, then a master카지노 게임 컬렉션s in math and biology combined, followed by a Queen카지노 게임 컬렉션s PhD in math. He taught for three years at the 카지노게임사이트 of Toronto before joining Queen카지노 게임 컬렉션s in 2001. He will be assuming the role as Head of the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at Queen카지노 게임 컬렉션s this July. He카지노 게임 컬렉션s 52.
So, is he mainly a biologist or a mathematician?
The question gets a laugh 카지노 게임 컬렉션 카지노 게임 컬렉션on a good day I카지노 게임 컬렉션m both, on a bad day, I카지노 게임 컬렉션m neither.카지노 게임 컬렉션
The group카지노 게임 컬렉션s job is 카지노 게임 컬렉션to come to some sort of consensus on what the modelling says 카지노 게임 컬렉션 models that we ourselves do but 카지노 게임 컬렉션 also models that people elsewhere in the world are building.카지노 게임 컬렉션
They work together, all on Zoom, either bringing different skills together on one problem or taking separate runs at a question and comparing results afterward. 카지노 게임 컬렉션I카지노 게임 컬렉션m impressed by how well it [Zoom] works, but I카지노 게임 컬렉션m so sick of just sitting in the same chair all day.카지노 게임 컬렉션
Results have to be useful to policy-makers, and the researchers work hard on how to present their work clearly to people who are not scientists.
카지노 게임 컬렉션I think it has been really successful, just evidenced by the fact that there카지노 게임 컬렉션s a continued dialogue between the decision-makers and the modellers. They must be getting something out of it,카지노 게임 컬렉션 he says.
He wonders what his career will look like in a post-COVID-19 world, when the skills that shot him into demand a year ago 카지노 게임 컬렉션will go back to being not of interest to anybody else.카지노 게임 컬렉션 But infectious diseases are always evolving.
카지노 게임 컬렉션There is going to be no end to them,카지노 게임 컬렉션 he says. 카지노 게임 컬렉션Habitats are changing. There are going to be new interactions between things. Lyme disease is here in Kingston, and all that kind of stuff. There will be no shortage of problems along these lines to work on. One day at a time!
